Insights

Dominic King, Editor - global research, draws on a session at the 2015 IMF/World Bank Spring Conference to ask why regional trade deals are trumping a multilateral agreement and how the digital economy is reshaping globalisation.

Day three at the IMF: Tackling tax evasion: thoughts from the IMF

Day two at the IMF: The challenges and opportunities posed by ageing populations

Dominic King reports from the IMF Spring Conference where Big Data, the oil price drop, an ageing population, the sustainable development goals, water scarcity and tax evasion are on the agenda.

Over the last few years, ask an economist where to look for growth and the answer would usually be the emerging markets. Now, though, with renewed optimism in Japan the UK, and US , should we be looking to the developed economies for new opportunities?

The second quarter of 2014 brought a raft of very cheery economic news. The pace of growth in China kicked back up to 7.5% following a mini-stimulus from the government which included speeding up infrastructure project approvals, tax relief and credit easing. The United States roared back after a particularly bitter winter to post 4.0% growth (at the annual rate). Spain was buoyed by news that growth had accelerated to 0.6% (from the previous quarter) and the unemployment rate has started to fall.

Two in five mid-market businesses around the world either currently outsource a back-office process, or plans to in the near future.

Poland’s economy avoided recession during the 2009 financial crisis,and rebounded strongly in 2010-2011. Poland: dynamism at the heart of Europe.

Polska gospodarka uniknęła kryzysu finansowego w 2009 roku. Po okresie spowolnienia, w latach 2010-2011 powróciła na ścieżkę wzrostu. Polska nie mogła jednak całkowicie uniknąć skutków globalnego kryzysu. Wymiana z Europą stanowi bowiem ponad 80% całego polskiego handlu zagranicznego. Gospodarka rosła więc wolniej w porównaniu do czasu sprzed kryzysu gospodarczego, osiągając w latach 2012 i 2013 tempo około 1,5% rocznie.

The economy expanded by an estimated 4.5% in 2013, the fastest rate since the financial crisis. Oil and gas remain central to the success of the economy – the price of oil remains well above US$100 per barrel and the UAE is thought to have the seventh largest reserves in the world (98bn barrels) – accounting for close to 50% of total exports.

The next 12 months hold a number of opportunities and challenges for Latin America. An estimated 600,000 visitors will descend on Brazil for the FIFA World Cup. They will be joined by television viewers across the globe as Brazil attempts to show the world that despite stadia construction delays and social unrest during the Confederations Cup last summer, it is open for business.

The economy of France continues to suffer as the eurozone crisis continues. Following a deep contraction in 2009, the economy recovered robustly, posting seven consecutive quarters of expansion. However, France has stagnated over the past two years as problems in southern Europe intensified, with growth slowing as unemployment and government debt rise.

Dynamic organisations need to apply both reason and instinct when making business decisions is the cornerstone of our 2012 advertising campaign.

Last week, the International Labour Organisation (ILO) released their annual World of Work report. It contains some stark warnings, particularly for mature economies where it does not expect employment levels to return to pre-crisis levels before 2017. Getting people back into work, the report says, will be a “major global challenge” for years to come and the threat of “social unrest” a major risk.

Writing our recently released Future of Europe report, the thing that stood out to me most was the divergence of business opinion on how to handle the eurozone crisis. And not just between the 17 euro ‘ins’ and the 10 euro ‘outs’ – which you might expect – but a split right at the heart of Europe.

The Q1 IBR economic update contained a major surprise: For the first time, not one of the BRIC economies made it into the top five for business optimism.